Probability & Odds

Chance is full of surprises. Play with these experiments β€” roll dice, flip coins, open doors β€” and watch your gut instinct get proven wrong, then see the real math behind the luck.

πŸŽ‚ The Birthday Paradox
βœ‰οΈ Email

How many people need to be in a room before two of them probably share a birthday? Way fewer than you'd guess.

23 people50.7%

In a room of 23, there's a 50.7% chance at least two people share a birthday. At just 23 people it's already better than a coin flip!

πŸšͺ The Monty Hall Problem

A car hides behind one of three doors; goats behind the other two. Pick a door. The host opens a different door showing a goat. Should you stay, or switch?

Pick a door to start.
Stayed
β€”
0/0
Switched
β€”
0/0

Switching wins about 2 out of 3 times β€” because your first pick is only right 1/3 of the time, so the car is behind the other door twice as often.

🎲 Roll dice β€” watch the bell curve appear

Roll real dice and watch your results stack up into the exact shape the math predicts. One die is flat; add dice and the middle bulges.

Outline = the exact odds Β· fill = your 0 rolls
2most likely: 712

A 7 on two dice has six ways to happen (1-6, 2-5, 3-4…) but a 2 has only one β€” so 7 comes up six times as often. Keep rolling and your bars climb to meet the outline.

πŸͺ™ Flip coins β€” watch 50/50 emerge
0 flips total
Heads
0.0%
0
Tails
0.0%
0

Each flip is 50/50, but small runs look lopsided (three heads in a row is common!). Flip a thousand and both bars settle onto the dashed halfway line β€” the law of large numbers at work.

βš–οΈ How rare is rare? Odds & the ladder
As odds against
9.0 : 1
As "1 in N"
1 in 10.0
As a fraction
0.1000
Flip heads on a coin1 in 2
Roll a 6 on one die1 in 6
Roll two 6s at once1 in 36
Be born on a leap day1 in 1,461
Get a royal flush (poker)1 in 649,740
Struck by lightning this year1 in ~1.2 million
Win a 6/49 lottery jackpot1 in 13,983,816

"Odds" and "probability" aren't the same thing: a 25% chance is 1 in 4 as a probability, but 3 : 1 against as odds (three ways to lose for each way to win).

More number toys

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